Students to Increase by More Than 150 by 2017, Study Says

Students could increase district-wide by more than 150 students over the next few years, according to a demographic study presented at Monday night's Board of Education meeting.

The study showed that over the next five years, enrollment in Millburn schools will continue to rise — without any correlation to the birthrate in town, which is the mostly commonly used number to project enrollment — to 5,135. Current enrollment is 4,946, according to preliminary registration numbers. 

"You have an anomaly that I have not experienced this in one of the 300 some-odd districts I have [projected]," said Dr. Joseph Richardson, a demographics expert with Whitehall Associates who conducted the study.

Richardson explained, Millburn's birthrate has significantly dropped about 40 percent over recent years, however, school enrollment has continued to increase.

"The birthrate is all over the map," he said. The birthrate number is generally used to predict kindergarten enrollment, which is the main component in any demographic school study, according to Richardson.

After consulting with the administration, the study used a five-year average of enrollment to predict kindergarten enrollment in addition to large number of variables, including real estate trends, according to Richardson. 

The board and public questioned if this was this was the right method to which Richardson responded, "In our considered professional opinion this is what should be used."

However, according to preliminary figures from administration, 51 less students are currently enrolled the Millburn School District compared to last year. The official figures will be finalized on Oct. 15. Preliminary figures attached as PDF.

Board member Dr. Jason Siegel said this year's enrollment figures are "just striking."

He added, "Knowing that after this year's high school class graduates, which is what I believe is one of the largest in the school system right now, that will be tremendous drop in numbers."

Board President Jeffrey Waters agreed that the Millburn is a unique situation making projection difficult.

He added, "I think we just need to take it in context and understand that these are just numbers based on a well accepted methodology, but they are just a tool for decision making."

A district-wide capacity study was also presented. More to come from Patch.